OIL, GASOLINE AND THE WHITE HOUSE

What the numbers show: Trump 2017–2020 vs. Biden 2021–2024

By AI TV INFO — Global Intelligence  | Special Report

WASHINGTON — Oil and gasoline prices became one of the most politically charged economic issues of the past decade. But behind the political debate is a more complicated picture: crude oil is traded in a global market, while U.S. production has continued to reach record levels under both administrations.

To compare the two completed presidential terms on an apples-to-apples basis, AI TV INFO examined three indicators:

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil
• U.S. national-average regular gasoline
• U.S. crude-oil production

The figures are based primarily on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

THE NUMBERS

EIA’s WTI series reports annual averages of $39.16 in 2020, $68.13 in 2021, $94.90 in 2022, $77.58 in 2023 and $76.63 in 2024. EIA’s national regular-gasoline series gives annual averages of approximately $2.42 in 2017, $2.72 in 2018, $2.60 in 2019, $2.17 in 2020, $3.00 in 2021, $3.96 in 2022, $3.52 in 2023 and $3.31 in 2024.

TRUMP’S FIRST TERM: 2017–2020

During Donald Trump’s first term, WTI crude averaged roughly $53 per barrel across the four calendar years.

Regular gasoline averaged approximately $2.48 per gallon.

U.S. crude production increased dramatically over the period, from roughly 9.4 million barrels per day in 2017 to about 11.3 million barrels per day in 2020.

But one year fundamentally changed the four-year average: 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic brought international travel, commuting and industrial activity to an extraordinary halt. Global oil demand collapsed, sending crude prices sharply lower.

WTI averaged just $39.16 per barrel in 2020, while U.S. regular gasoline averaged about $2.17 per gallon.

The collapse was not a normal market cycle. It was an exceptional global demand shock.

BIDEN’S TERM: 2021–2024

The market environment changed dramatically after the pandemic.

As economies reopened in 2021, oil demand recovered rapidly. WTI averaged $68.13 per barrel, compared with $39.16 in 2020.

Then came the largest price shock of Biden’s presidency.

2022: THE OIL SHOCK

WTI averaged approximately $94.90 per barrel in 2022.

U.S. regular gasoline averaged approximately $3.96 per gallon, with the national average reaching $5.02 per gallon in June 2022.

The surge followed the post-pandemic demand recovery and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted global energy markets.

The important point is that crude oil is traded globally. A disruption in a major producing or exporting country can affect prices in the United States even when domestic production is rising.

THE SURPRISING PLANION STORY

One of the most important facts in this comparison is often overlooked.

U.S. oil production did NOT fall throughout Biden’s presidency.

It increased substantially.

U.S. annual crude production reached:

11.2 million barrels/day — 2021

11.9 million — 2022

12.9 million — 2023

13.2 million — 2024

The 13.2 million barrels-per-day figure was a U.S. annual production record at the time. EIA reported that almost all of the 2024 increase came from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

That means the relationship between domestic production and gasoline prices is not one-to-one.

The United States can produce more oil while Americans simultaneously pay more for gasoline.

THE FOUR-YEAR COMPARISON

Using the annual data:

Trump, 2017–2020

WTI: approximately $53/barrel average

Gasoline: approximately $2.48/gallon average

Production: approximately 9.4 → 11.3 million barrels/day

Biden, 2021–2024

WTI: approximately $79/barrel average

Gasoline: approximately $3.45/gallon average

Production: approximately 11.2 → 13.2 million barrels/day

On this basis, the Biden-period average WTI price was roughly 49% higher than the Trump-period average.

The average U.S. gasoline price was roughly 39% higher.

At the same time, U.S. crude production ended the Biden presidency at a level roughly 17% above the 2020 level.

These are comparisons of observed market outcomes—not evidence that either president directly caused the price differences.

THE COVID PROBLEM

There is an important statistical warning.

2020 heavily lowers Trump’s four-year average.

It was the year of the extraordinary pandemic demand collapse.

If 2020 is removed and the comparison is instead:

Trump: 2017–2019

WTI: approximately $57/barrel

Gasoline: approximately $2.58/gallon

Biden: 2021–2024

WTI: approximately $79/barrel

Gasoline: approximately $3.45/gallon

The difference remains substantial, although the comparison is no longer between equivalent four-year periods.

The lesson is straightforward: the choice of comparison period can materially affect the headline number.

2025–2026: THE SECOND TRUMP TERM CHANGES THE STORY

The comparison becomes even more interesting when Trump’s current term is added.

EIA reports that WTI averaged approximately $65.39 per barrel in 2025, substantially below the Biden-era 2022 peak and below the 2024 average.

U.S. crude production also continued climbing.

In 2025, U.S. production reached a new record of approximately 13.6 million barrels per day, according to EIA. The agency attributed the increase largely to continued improvements in drilling productivity and operational efficiency.

But 2026 has brought a major new variable:

THE MIDDLE EAST

The war and disruptions affecting Middle Eastern energy flows have pushed crude prices substantially higher.

EIA reported that Brent began the third quarter of 2026 around $72 per barrel, but crossed $100 per barrel on July 23 as markets reacted to renewed military strikes and disruptions associated with the conflict.

At the same time, U.S. production remains at historically high levels.

This creates an important real-world demonstration:

Record U.S. oil production does not guarantee low gasoline prices.

Global supply, international shipping routes, OPEC+ policy, inventories, refinery capacity and geopolitical disruptions can overwhelm changes in U.S. production.

WHAT DOES THIS TELL US ABOUT PRESIDENTIAL POLICY?

The data support several conclusions.

1. Oil was cheaper during Trump’s first term.

That is a straightforward observation from the annual WTI data.

But the four-year average is strongly influenced by the extraordinary 2020 pandemic collapse.

2. Oil and gasoline were more expensive during Biden’s term.

The largest factor was the global market environment, particularly the post-pandemic demand recovery and the 2022 energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

3. U.S. production increased under both presidents.

Production rose dramatically during Trump’s first term and reached record levels during Biden’s presidency.

It then reached another record in 2025 under Trump’s second term.

4. The president does not set the world oil price.

The White House can influence domestic energy policy through leasing, regulation, permitting, infrastructure and other measures.

But crude oil is a global commodity.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, OPEC+, China, the United States, global economic growth, inventories and wars all influence the market.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The political debate often reduces the question to:

“Was oil cheaper under Trump or Biden?”

The historical data provide a clear answer:

Oil and gasoline averaged less during Trump’s first term than during Biden’s 2021–2024 presidency.

But the explanation is considerably more complicated than presidential policy alone.

Trump’s first term ended with the unprecedented COVID-19 collapse in global oil demand.

Biden’s presidency began as the global economy reopened and was followed by the enormous 2022 energy shock.

Meanwhile, U.S. oil production rose to record levels during Biden’s presidency and reached another record under Trump’s second term.

The current 2026 Middle East crisis reinforces the central lesson of the oil market:

America can produce record amounts of oil and still experience high gasoline prices when global supplies are disrupted.

For consumers, the price at the pump is therefore determined not only by what happens in Washington, but also by what happens in Texas, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, China, OPEC+, the world’s shipping lanes and the global economy.

AI TV INFO — EDITOR’S NOTE

The figures in this report use nominal dollars and annual averages. WTI refers to the annual average spot price for West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma. Gasoline refers to EIA’s U.S. regular all-formulations retail gasoline series. Crude production refers to U.S. crude oil and lease condensate production.

Because presidential terms and calendar years do not align perfectly, annual figures should be viewed as a market-period comparison rather than a precise measurement of what a particular administration caused.

Primary data sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Petroleum Supply Monthly/Annual and petroleum-price databases.

AI TV INFO — DATA, CONTEXT, AND FACTS BEYOND THE HEADLINES.