THE GLOBAL SOUTH DEFIES THE SLOWDOWN

How Emerging Economies Are Outgrowing the World in Early 2026

By AI TV INFO | Global Economics Desk — January 13,  2026

Executive Signal

While much of the global conversation remains focused on slowing growth, trade tensions, and geopolitical risk, a different story is unfolding across the Global South. New data released since early January 2026 confirms a powerful trend: developing economies are not only resilient — they are outperforming the world.

With global growth projected at 2.7%, the Global South is tracking closer to 4.2%, driven by domestic demand, public investment, reforms, and strategic realignment. From Africa’s commodity-powered acceleration to Asia’s role as the backbone of global supply chains, the second week of January has crystallized what analysts are calling a “resilience narrative.”

This is the story the numbers are now telling.

A WORLD COOLING — BUT NOT EVERYWHERE

Despite tightening financial conditions, elevated debt, and geopolitical uncertainty, early-2026 projections from the UN, IMF, and World Bank show that many Global South economies are decoupling from the global slowdown.

Key drivers include:

• Strong domestic consumption

• Large-scale public infrastructure investment

• Commodity price tailwinds

• South-South trade and financial cooperation

• Strategic reforms aimed at stability and diversification

Rather than reacting defensively to Western trade barriers, emerging economies are building their own corridors, markets, and financial systems.

AFRICA: THE UNDERESTIMATED OUTPERFORMER

Africa is projected to grow 4.0% in 2026, edging up from 3.9% in 2025 — and for the first time in recent history, potentially outpacing parts of Asia.

East Africa Leads

East Africa stands out with projected growth of 5.8%, supported by:

• Regional integration

• Renewable energy expansion

• Structural reforms

Countries including Uganda, Rwanda, and Ethiopia are averaging around 7% growth, while South Sudan and Guinea are forecast to post double-digit expansions, driven by oil and mining booms.

Country Highlights

• Nigeria: Forecast growth of 4.3%, with consumer demand rising over 7%

• Kenya: GDP growth accelerated to 4.9% in Q3 2025, strengthening fiscal prospects

• Ghana: Inflation slowed to 5.4% in December 2025, opening the door to rate cuts

• Angola: Credit to the non-financial sector rose 15.9% year-on-year, signaling renewed lending

Africa is now expected to host more economies growing above 6% than any other region, supported by trade recovery in precious metals and agriculture.

Africa 2026 Growth Snapshot

LATIN AMERICA: STABILITY, REFORMS, AND A QUIET TURNAROUND

Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to grow 2.3% in 2026—modest, but stronger than the U.S. and Europe.

Policy-Driven Support

• Colombia: Minimum wage increased by nearly 23% as of January 1, boosting household demand

• Mexico: New tariffs on over 1,000 non-FTA products (5–50%) to protect domestic industry

• Argentina: Stabilization under President Milei has brought inflation under control and restored peso confidence

Argentina’s recovery—forecast at 4.5%–5.5% growth—is now expected to be the main growth engine of the region, offsetting slower momentum elsewhere.

Investment Signal

The region attracted $226 billion in FDI commitments in 2024, up 8%, with spillover benefits now materializing in 2026.

Latin America: Policy Impact Table

ASIA: THE ENGINE ROOM OF GLOBAL GROWTH

South Asia

South Asia is forecast to grow 5.6% in 2026, among the fastest globally.

• India: 6.6% growth, driven by resilient consumption, public infrastructure, AI data centers, and lower interest rates

• Sri Lanka: 3.7%, supported by tourism and easing policy

• Bangladesh: Around 5%, aided by remittances and falling inflation

India remains the world’s primary economic shock absorber, with electronics exports jumping 40% year-on-year and pharmaceuticals largely shielded from Western tariffs.

Southeast Asia

ASEAN economies are benefiting from “China+1” supply chain shifts:

• Vietnam: 8% growth in 2025, infrastructure spending up 27%, FDI at $27.6 billion

• Indonesia: Nickel processing strategy flipped trade deficits into surpluses; exports exceeded $30 billion

• Regional earnings growth projected at 11–15% annually

The launch of the ASEAN Economic Community Strategic Plan 2026–2030 aims to create a seamless single market and integrate MSMEs through digital platforms.

WESTERN ASIA & THE MIDDLE EAST: DIVERSIFICATION DELIVERS

Western Asia is projected to grow 4.1% in 2026, up from 3.4%.

A standout signal came this week:

• Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports surged 32.3% year-on-year, confirming that Vision 2030 diversification is translating into measurable results

The Middle East is also leading in AI-driven financial services, with mobile commerce expected to account for 70% of online transactions in 2026.

THE SECOND WEEK OF JANUARY 2026: WHAT CHANGED

Between January 5 and January 12, a wave of strategic announcements reinforced the optimism:

Major Developments

• Egypt: Secured $3.5 billion in Qatar-backed financing for Mediterranean development

• AU–China Dialogue: Shift toward zero-tariff African exports and digital infrastructure

• Turkey: Akkuyu nuclear plant entered final commissioning, strengthening energy security

• Bangladesh–Pakistan: Direct flights resume to boost textile trade

• Africa: $30 billion aviation modernization plan launched

Global South inflation is projected to fall to 3.1% in 2026, easing currency and debt pressures.

THE “NEW REALISM” OF 2026

A defining theme of early 2026 is self-determined growth.

As emphasized during the African Union Permanent Representatives’ session on January 12:

The Global South is no longer waiting for revised risk premiums—it is building its own financial, trade, and infrastructure architecture.

From BRICS+ frameworks to regional corridors like IMEC and Africa’s PIDA, the strategy is clear: diversify partners, deepen regional markets, and control the narrative.

AI TV INFO’s TAKEAWAY

The data from early 2026 sends a powerful message:

• The Global South is outgrowing the world

• Domestic demand is replacing export dependency

• Reforms are beginning to pay dividends

• South-South cooperation is accelerating

• The growth story is no longer cyclical—it is structural

While risks remain—debt, climate shocks, and inflation—the momentum is unmistakable.

The slowdown is global. The growth is not.

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Disclaimer:

AI TV INFO is not an investment advisor, broker, or dealer.
The information presented in this report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments.

All investing involves risk, in both developed and emerging markets. Regional political, economic, regulatory, and currency factors should be carefully considered.

To invest responsibly in these markets, it is recommended to identify a trustworthy partner with aligned long-term interests, who is successfully active on the ground in these regions and who does not rely on commissions or product sales for compensation. Independent alignment, local expertise, and transparency are critical when navigating opportunities in the Global South.