Global South Gains Momentum as 2026 Opens: IMF Upgrades, Mega Trade Deals, and a New Growth Map Emerges

AI TV INFO | Global Economy & Strategic Intelligence — January 19, 2026

As the global economy enters 2026 with cautious expectations, a powerful counter-narrative is taking shape across the Global South. While advanced economies brace for modest growth amid high interest rates and trade uncertainty, emerging markets are recording upgraded forecasts, historic trade breakthroughs, and renewed investor confidence.

Between January 16 and January 19, 2026, a cluster of major developments—from IMF growth upgrades to the landmark EU-Mercosur trade agreement—has reinforced a clear message: economic gravity continues to shift southward.

This is not a story of hype, but of data, policy, and structural change.

🇮🇳 India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens as IMF Raises Forecast

India continues to anchor the Global South’s growth story.

In its latest update, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised India’s 2025–26 GDP growth forecast to approximately 7.3%, citing stronger-than-expected domestic demand, resilient consumption, and sustained public investment.

The IMF reaffirmed India’s position as the fastest-growing major economy globally, noting that large-scale infrastructure spending, technology investment, and energy-sector expansion are insulating the country from global trade volatility.

Key tailwinds include:

• A potential EU–India trade agreement, expected to expand market access for goods and services

• An estimated $500 billion investment pipeline in India’s power and energy sectors over the next seven years

• Rising consumer confidence and a shift toward long-term investment instruments

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Indian state and federal leaders emphasized India’s role as a stabilizing demand engine for the broader Global South.

Africa: Investment, Trade, and Reform Drive Resilience

Libya: $2.7 Billion Free Zone Expansion

On January 18, Libya signed a strategic partnership to expand the Misurata Free Zone, attracting an estimated $2.7 billion in foreign investment. The project is expected to strengthen logistics, manufacturing, and export capacity in North Africa, while generating employment in a post-conflict recovery phase.

South Africa: Early Signals of Economic Renewal

Johannesburg’s skyline is once again dotted with construction cranes—an image analysts interpret as a tangible sign of recovery.

The World Bank now forecasts 1.4% GDP growth for South Africa in 2026, up from 1.3% in 2025, supported by:

• Improved electricity supply

• Strong agricultural output

• Rising private-sector confidence

South Africa’s 10-year bond yield fell below 8.30%, its lowest level since January 2020, reflecting improved fiscal discipline, inflation easing to 3.5%, and currency stability.

Trade Gains Across the Continent

• Zambia signed a new copper trade arrangement with China, stabilizing mining revenues amid favorable commodity prices

• Kenya secured zero-duty access for 98% of its exports to China, offsetting potential U.S. tariff pressures

• Nigeria was removed from the EU’s high-risk financial list and approved new satellite licenses to expand internet infrastructure

Overall, sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow around 4.1–4.6% in 2026, with Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Uganda among the standouts.

The Historic EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Might Reshape Global Trade

The most consequential economic event of the past week came on January 17, 2026, when the European Union and Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay) formally signed their long-awaited Free Trade Agreement—26 years in the making.

Why It Matters

• Creates one of the world’s largest trade zones

• Covers 720 million people and $22 trillion in combined GDP

• Eliminates tariffs on 90% of bilateral trade

Analysts widely agree the agreement was fast-tracked as a hedge against rising U.S. protectionism, offering South America a powerful alternative mega-market.

Immediate Winners

• Brazil and Argentina gain preferential access for beef, poultry, soybeans, orange juice, and ethanol

• Critical minerals (lithium, graphite, niobium, manganese) become a centerpiece of EU-Mercosur cooperation

• Provisions mandate technology transfer and clean-energy integration, helping South American economies move up the value chain

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and President Javier Milei of Argentina both described the signing as a “victory for multilateralism.”

Latin America: Investor Confidence Rebounds

Despite lingering fiscal constraints, Latin America is demonstrating resilience:

• Brazil’s industrial output rose 0.4% month-on-month in December 2025

• Regional GDP growth is projected around 2.3% in 2026, with a rebound toward 2.5% in 2027

• Venezuela announced plans to reopen its oil sector to foreign investment, signaling potential recovery in one of the world’s largest reserve holders

• Guyana remains among the fastest-growing economies globally due to large-scale oil production

Investor sentiment has improved markedly, particularly following policy shifts and renewed trade diversification away from over-reliance on the U.S. market.

Asia Beyond India: Reform and Resource Momentum

• Indonesia continues to benefit from record Belt and Road Initiative investments, particularly in metals and energy projects in North Kalimantan

• Uzbekistan is accelerating reforms and attracting mining and manufacturing investment

• Bhutan is expanding hydropower capacity, strengthening its long-term sustainable growth outlook

Developing Asia’s growth is forecast near 5.6% in 2026, outpacing global averages and reinforcing the region’s role as a production and consumption hub.

Big Picture: A Diverging Global Economy

While global growth for 2026 is projected at roughly 2.7%, emerging markets are clearly outperforming. Chief economists now point to stronger regional divergence, with the Global South benefiting from:

• Trade diversification and South-South cooperation

• Stable commodity prices (gold, copper, silver)

• Strategic investment in energy, infrastructure, and technology

At the same time, risks remain—high debt burdens, climate shocks, and geopolitical tensions require continued international coordination.

 AI TV INFO’s Perspective

The developments of mid-January 2026 mark more than short-term optimism—they reflect a structural rebalancing of the global economy.

From India’s upgraded growth outlook and Africa’s investment revival to South America’s decisive trade realignment with Europe, the Global South is no longer merely reacting to global trends—it is actively shaping them.

At AI TV INFO, we track where capital, trade, and policy are converging before the consensus forms.

The takeaway is clear:
The next chapter of global growth is being written outside the traditional centers of power—and the data is now catching up to that reality.

Coming Next:
AI TV INFO Analytics will release a country-by-country breakdown of the fastest-growing economies of 2026, including sector drivers, verified forecasts, and investment implications.

Stay tuned — the numbers may surprise you. 

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© AI TV INFO | Global Economics
Data compiled from IMF, and historical economic records. Interpretive analysis by AI TV INFO´s channel.

AI TV INFO is not an investment advisor, broker, or dealer.
The information presented in this report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments.

All investing involves risk, in both developed and emerging markets. Regional political, economic, regulatory, and currency factors should be carefully considered.

To invest responsibly in these markets, it is recommended to identify a trustworthy partner with aligned long-term interests, who is successfully active on the ground in these regions and who does not rely on commissions or product sales for compensation. Independent alignment, local expertise, and transparency are critical when navigating opportunities in the Global South.